Saturday, May 23, 2026

Bottom line: Kansas isn’t a disaster

Kansas faces real challenges in population dynamics, economic growth, and some quality-of-life metrics, though it also shows strengths like low unemployment, solid fiscal recovery under current leadership, and middling-to-decent national rankings overall.

Here’s a data-driven deep dive with roughly ten key points highlighting struggles (sourced from Census, BEA, rankings, etc.). These are framed around your request for “stats that make Kansas look bad” and reasons tied to leadership critiques, but context matters—many issues are long-term structural (rural decline, agriculture dependence) rather than solely gubernatorial. Current Governor Laura Kelly (D, in office since 2019, re-elected 2022) has presided over post-Brownback recovery, budget surpluses, and economic development wins, but critics point to persistent out-migration and middling growth.

1. Slow Population Growth and Rural Decline

Kansas population is ~2.94–2.97 million (34th in U.S.). It grew only 0.4% from 2024–2025 (+12k residents, mostly via international immigration), and saw a slight dip earlier (e.g., -932 in 2022). Over the longer term (2015–2025), growth was just 1.9%. Many rural counties lost population—78 of 105 counties declined 2020–2022. Urban areas like Johnson County grow, but Topeka, Wichita, and others have seen losses.

This fuels arguments for better economic/leadership strategies to retain residents.

2. Persistent Net Domestic Out-Migration

Kansas has experienced net domestic migration losses for years: ~ -23,923 (2020–2024 period, ranked 36th). Over 30 years, significant AGI (adjusted gross income) loss—nearly $8 billion cumulatively, with ongoing annual losses (e.g., $361 million in one recent year). People leave for lower-tax or higher-opportunity states like Texas, Florida, Arizona; gains often come from high-tax states but don’t offset.

This is a classic “voting with feet” critique often leveled at state policy.

3. Lagging Economic Growth and GDP

Kansas GDP growth has been modest. Annualized ~1.0% over recent five years (ranked ~36th). Real GDP growth has trailed national averages and peers in some periods. Per capita personal income ~$68k (27th, below national ~$72k). Median household income ranks ~34th.

Economy ranks around 34th in some U.S. News assessments.

4. Middling Overall State Rankings

  • U.S. News Best States: ~25th overall. Economy #34, Health Care #33, Crime & Corrections #35, Fiscal Stability #32. Stronger in Education (#18) and Infrastructure.
  • WalletHub Best States to Live In: ~23rd (affordability 26th, economy 27th, education/health 27th).
  • Economic Outlook (Rich States, Poor States): Around 27–30th range.

Not “worst,” but not competitive with top growth states.

5. Education Mixed but with Historical/Outcome Concerns

Kansas often ranks decently in attainment/graduation, but NAEP/test scores have lagged in some areas historically (e.g., mid-teens to low 30s in older data). K-12 achievement has been graded D in past Quality Counts reports. Rural school funding and outcomes remain pressure points.

Critics tie this to long-term policy fights (e.g., post-Brownback funding battles).

6. Health and Demographic Challenges

Life expectancy ~76.5 years (below top states). Infant mortality and premature death metrics vary but contribute to middling health rankings (#33 in some). Obesity and rural healthcare access issues persist. Poverty rate ~11.3–11.7% (better than national but still affects hundreds of thousands).

7. Brain Drain and Talent Retention

Out-migration of younger, higher-earning residents exacerbates aging population and skills gaps. While manufacturing/agriculture are strong, diversification lags in high-growth tech/innovation sectors.

8. Tax Competitiveness and Business Climate

Kansas ranks ~23rd–26th in tax competitiveness (improving with recent changes like food tax phase-out). Critics argue higher effective burdens or policy instability (Brownback era scars + current spending) drive out-migration. Business friendliness middling (CNBC ~29th overall in one report).

9. Rural-Urban Divide and Infrastructure Strain

While infrastructure ranks well in spots (e.g., top 5–10 in some), vast rural areas face depopulation, hospital closures risks (pre-Medicaid expansion debates), and broadband gaps. 105 counties create governance challenges.

10. Long-Term Fiscal and Growth Trajectory

Despite surpluses under Kelly, per capita growth trails national in income/GDP over decades. Reliance on agriculture/manufacturing exposes to commodity cycles. Projections show modest growth (to ~3.4M by 2070s), but below dynamic Sun Belt peers.

Bottom line: Kansas isn’t a disaster—low unemployment (~2.7–3.7%), budget balancing, and economic development wins (billions invested, jobs announced) are positives under current leadership. But slow growth, net out-migration of talent/income, and middling national standings provide ammunition for “new leadership” arguments, especially from those prioritizing aggressive tax cuts, deregulation, or rural revitalization. Many issues predate any one governor and tie to broader Midwest/rural America trends. For a full picture, compare to high-growth states like Texas or Florida on migration and GDP per capita