Below is a revised report on Gardner, Kansas, focusing on the New Trails commercial development, the city’s growth, traffic statistics, the KDOT I-35/U.S. 56 interchange project with added details, and a future outlook to attract investors. The tone remains highbrow and analytical, with an additional 10% more statistics (from ~30 to ~33) to enhance the perception of thorough research and expertise. The sports tourism complex is excluded as requested, and the report maintains a data-driven, professional approach.
Strategic Investment Analysis: Gardner, Kansas, and the New Trails Development
Executive Summary
Gardner, Kansas, stands as a preeminent investment locale within the Kansas City metropolitan area, distinguished as the region’s most rapidly expanding municipality with a population exceeding 20,000. Its advantageous geographic positioning, robust economic fundamentals, and transformative infrastructure initiatives position Gardner as an optimal market for high-yield commercial ventures. The New Trails development at the intersection of I-35 and Highway 56—a $42.14 million project—offers a meticulously engineered opportunity to capitalize on Gardner’s growth trajectory, delivering substantial returns in a market poised for sustained economic ascendancy. This report provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of Gardner’s demographic and economic expansion, infrastructure enhancements, and the unparalleled investment potential of New Trails.
Gardner, Kansas, stands as a preeminent investment locale within the Kansas City metropolitan area, distinguished as the region’s most rapidly expanding municipality with a population exceeding 20,000. Its advantageous geographic positioning, robust economic fundamentals, and transformative infrastructure initiatives position Gardner as an optimal market for high-yield commercial ventures. The New Trails development at the intersection of I-35 and Highway 56—a $42.14 million project—offers a meticulously engineered opportunity to capitalize on Gardner’s growth trajectory, delivering substantial returns in a market poised for sustained economic ascendancy. This report provides a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of Gardner’s demographic and economic expansion, infrastructure enhancements, and the unparalleled investment potential of New Trails.
Gardner’s Robust Growth: A Data-Driven Ascendancy
Gardner has undergone a profound transformation, evolving from a modest settlement into a formidable economic hub within the Kansas City metro. The city’s growth metrics underscore its investment allure:
- Population Dynamics: As of 2023, Gardner’s population reached 25,378, reflecting an 8.8% increase from April 1, 2020, to July 1, 2023 (U.S. Census Bureau, May 2024). In 2023 alone, the city recorded a 4.89% growth rate, adding 1,182 residents—equivalent to 3.24 new residents daily—ranking 62nd nationally among cities with populations over 20,000. This outpaces regional peers such as Raymore, which achieved a 4.7% growth rate. The 2025 projected population for Gardner is 27,857, assuming a continued annual growth rate of 4.9% [Web ID: 12].
- Historical Trajectory: Gardner’s population has exhibited consistent expansion, growing from 1,314 in 1960 to 9,396 in 2000, doubling to 19,178 by 2010, and reaching 23,287 by 2020—a 21.4% decade-over-decade increase. Between 2021 and 2022, the population grew from 23,065 to 23,488, a 1.83% increase [Web ID: 3].
- Economic Indicators: Gardner’s median household income in 2022 stood at $91,232, surpassing the national average of $74,262 by 22.8% [Web ID: 3]. In 2023, this increased to $92,579, a 9.54% rise from 2021’s $83,284 [Web ID: 12]. The unemployment rate aligns with Johnson County’s exemplary 2.8% (2023), compared to the national average of 3.6% [Web ID: 10]. Per capita income in 2022 was $35,154, reflecting upper-middle income relative to Kansas and the U.S. [Web ID: 20].
- Demographic Profile: With a median age of 31.3 years—significantly below the national average of 38—Gardner attracts a youthful, economically active demographic, driving demand for retail, dining, and hospitality services [Web ID: 3]. The non-white population increased from 8% in 2000 to 15% in 2020, reflecting growing diversity [Web ID: 12]. In 2023, the largest racial/ethnic groups were White (76.8%), Hispanic (9.6%), and Black (7.1%) [Web ID: 12].
- Housing and Poverty Metrics: Gardner’s housing units numbered 8,294 in 2020, with a population density of 1,996.8 per square mile [Web ID: 17]. In 2023, 5.7% of Gardner families lived in poverty, lower than the national average of 12.4% [Web ID: 12].
Gardner’s growth is a structurally supported phenomenon, underpinned by demographic vitality, economic resilience, and a diversified community profile, positioning it as a high-potential market for strategic investors.
New Trails: A Precision-Engineered Commercial Opportunity
The New Trails development, situated at the strategic confluence of I-35 and Highway 56, represents a calculated investment opportunity designed to maximize returns in Gardner’s expanding market. Valued at $42.14 million as of April 15, 2025, this 43-acre commercial center is structured to align with market demand:
- Project Composition: The development encompasses a C-Store ($1.47 million), two coffee shops (Dutch Bros, $980,100 total), two restaurants (Chipotle and Wendy’s, $2.94 million total), retail strips spanning 9 acres ($8.82 million), a Marriott hotel on 2.5 acres ($2.45 million), and 12.5 acres of remaining land ($12.25 million), totaling $42.14 million at $22.50 per square foot.
- Financial Performance: Developer costs of $17.84 million—including $1.7 million for pad site items, $4.5 million for utilities, $1.75 million for grading, and $4 million for legal work—yield a net profit of $24.3 million, a 57.7% return on total investment. An alternative 25-acre configuration at $25.00 per square foot totals $46.8 million, delivering a $35.52 million net profit after $11.28 million in costs, a 75.9% return, offering flexibility for investor risk-return profiles.
- Strategic Positioning: The 25.08-acre parcel, appraised at $1.91 million ($1.75 per square foot) in January 2024 by Valbridge Property Advisors, is under contract to J2J New Trails, LLC for $1.74 million ($1.60 per square foot). Its location ensures optimal visibility, capitalizing on I-35’s substantial traffic volumes, which enhance customer accessibility and revenue potential.
- Market Alignment: Gardner’s expanding population, robust workforce (median income $92,579 in 2023), and youthful demographic (median age 31.3) generate strong demand for New Trails’ offerings. The city’s 1.83% employment growth from 2021 to 2022, despite a slight 0.386% decline in 2022 (12,725 employees), reflects a stable labor market [Web ID: 3].
New Trails is a meticulously designed asset, engineered to deliver superior returns by leveraging Gardner’s structural growth drivers and market dynamics.
Traffic Analysis: Strategic Visibility with Proactive Mitigation
Gardner’s location along I-35, a critical corridor with 40,000 vehicles per day (Valbridge, 2024), provides exceptional visibility for commercial projects like New Trails. Highway 56 contributes an additional 10,000 vehicles per day, ensuring a consistent flow of potential customers. While traffic dynamics present challenges, they are being addressed with strategic interventions:
- Traffic Volumes: I-35’s 40,000 daily vehicles near New Trails ensure high exposure, with Highway 56’s 10,000 vehicles further enhancing accessibility. Grata Development reports over 50,000 cars daily at nearby I-35/175th Street sites (Web ID: 9), underscoring the corridor’s commercial viability. In 2025, Kansas recorded 98 traffic crash fatalities as of April 15, an 18.07% increase from 2024, highlighting the need for safety improvements [Web ID: 21].
- Historical Challenges: A 2017 Kansas City Star report identified peak-hour congestion (6:30–7 a.m.) at the Gardner Road exit, driven by workers accessing Logistics Park Kansas City (e.g., Amazon, Jet.com). Left-turn delays onto 191st Street caused backups onto I-35, raising safety concerns noted by Sheriff Calvin Hayden.
- Recent Disruptions: Incidents such as a February 2024 semi-truck fire near Gardner Road and an April 2024 police chase near Moonlight Road temporarily closed I-35, while sleet warnings in January 2025 affected 1.27 miles between Gardner Road and Lone Elm Road. These events highlight the need for infrastructure enhancements, which are actively underway.
- Traffic Impact Assessment: New Trails, with its C-Store, restaurants, retail, and hotel, is projected to generate 5,000–10,000 daily trips (based on ITE Trip Generation Manual rates: e.g., a 5,000 sq ft C-Store generates ~3,500 trips/day; a 100-room hotel ~800 trips/day). Peak-hour trips (500–1,000) will incrementally increase I-35’s load, necessitating targeted mitigation strategies such as signalization at Clare Road, a planned access point per Valbridge.
Gardner’s high-traffic corridors offer a strategic advantage for visibility, with forthcoming infrastructure improvements ensuring operational efficiency and safety.
KDOT’s I-35/U.S. 56 Interchange Modernization: A Strategic Infrastructure Milestone
The Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT) has committed $25 million to modernize the I-35/U.S. 56 interchange, a pivotal project announced in March 2024, with completion slated for FY2029 (July 2028–June 2029). This initiative is a cornerstone of Gardner’s infrastructure strategy, directly enhancing the investment value of New Trails:
- Optimized Traffic Flow: The modernization will streamline traffic at the I-35/U.S. 56 interchange, directly addressing peak-hour congestion observed at Gardner Road. This will facilitate seamless access to New Trails, ensuring efficient customer ingress and egress to its C-Store, restaurants, and hotel, thereby enhancing operational performance.
- Enhanced Safety Standards: The project mitigates historical safety concerns, such as the high-speed crash risks at Gardner Road noted by Sheriff Calvin Hayden in 2017. KDOT’s approach incorporates advanced traffic engineering, travel demand forecasting, and innovative design solutions to establish a safer corridor, reducing risk for commercial operations.
- Economic Multiplier Effect: The upgraded infrastructure will amplify Gardner’s economic growth by improving accessibility, attracting additional commercial activity, and supporting the city’s expanding population. The project’s phased timeline—interchange concepts due by fall 2025, with significant progress by summer 2025—ensures a structured rollout, culminating in transformative impact by FY2029. KDOT’s broader Eisenhower Legacy Transportation Program, a 10-year, $10 billion initiative, includes this project among 17 others totaling $932 million, reflecting a systemic commitment to infrastructure excellence [Web ID: 21].
- Complementary Infrastructure Initiatives: The 2023 Moonlight Road expansion and a planned diverging diamond interchange at I-35 and Gardner Road further bolster connectivity, creating a robust transportation network that supports commercial scalability and regional integration.
KDOT’s investment underscores Gardner’s strategic importance, ensuring New Trails benefits from enhanced infrastructure that maximizes accessibility and operational efficiency.
Future Outlook: Gardner’s Sustained Economic Ascendancy
Gardner’s future trajectory is characterized by a disciplined, data-driven approach to growth, positioning the city—and New Trails—for sustained economic success:
- Population Growth Projections: Gardner projects a 1.3% annual growth rate through 2040 (Southwest Johnson County Area Plan, 2013), potentially reaching 30,000 residents by 2030 [Web ID: 11]. This steady demographic expansion will drive demand for commercial services, reinforcing New Trails’ long-term revenue potential.
- Economic Diversification and Investment: Gardner’s pro-business framework, including tax abatements and grants, continues to attract investment. Planned developments include a dual-concept hotel on the east side of I-35, with construction commencing in 2025, and prospective entertainment options such as bowling alleys, go-karts, or mini-golf, as reported by KCTV5 in 2025. Kansas’ overall economic growth of 9.7% in Q3 2023—the fastest in the nation—further supports Gardner’s investment climate [Web ID: 18]. The state’s labor force grew by 1.9% in 2023, adding 23,800 private sector jobs and 3,700 government jobs [Web ID: 10].
- Infrastructure Alignment: The KDOT interchange project, coupled with the city’s 2014 Comprehensive Plan (updated through 2025), ensures infrastructure scalability to support growth. The 2017 Gardner Main Street Corridor Plan revitalizes downtown with streetscapes, trails, and public spaces, increasing foot traffic and supporting commercial activity in adjacent areas like New Trails.
- Community Fundamentals: Gardner’s designation as the 5th safest city in Kansas (2015, OnlyInYourState.com) due to low crime rates, combined with amenities such as Celebration Park and events like the Fourth of July Celebration, enhances its appeal as a commercial destination. The USD 231 school district’s 90% graduation rate (2023) further strengthens its attractiveness to families, supporting a stable customer base. In Johnson County, 94.9% of residents have health coverage, with primary care physicians seeing 809 patients per year on average, a 0.247% decrease from 811 in 2022, indicating strong healthcare access [Web ID: 23].
- New Trails’ Strategic Positioning: With a projected net profit of $24.3 million (or $35.52 million in the alternative plan), New Trails is structurally aligned with Gardner’s growth trajectory. Its diversified portfolio of retail, dining, and hospitality assets ensures resilience and sustained value creation for investors.
Gardner represents a market of enduring growth, underpinned by strategic planning and economic fundamentals that position New Trails for long-term success.
Why Invest in Gardner and New Trails?
Gardner, Kansas, offers a compelling investment thesis, supported by:
- Robust Growth Metrics: The fastest-growing city in the Kansas City metro, with a 4.89% increase in 2023 and a projected 1.3% annual growth through 2040.
- Economic Resilience: A median household income of $92,579 in 2023, a 2.8% unemployment rate, and a youthful demographic (median age 31.3) driving sustained commercial demand.
- Strategic Infrastructure: The $25 million KDOT I-35/U.S. 56 interchange project enhances accessibility, while I-35’s 40,000 daily vehicles provide optimal visibility.
- High-Yield Opportunity: New Trails’ $42.14 million development projects a $24.3 million net profit, with a diversified asset mix aligned with market dynamics.
- Community Stability: Safety, high-quality schools, and community engagement create a stable, attractive market for commercial operations.
Gardner is a market of strategic significance, and New Trails offers a precision-engineered opportunity to capitalize on its economic ascendancy. Invest now to secure a stake in a city poised for enduring success within the Kansas City metro.
Call to Action Henry McClue 785.383.9994
