The economic impact drivers for the proposed sports tourism complex in Gardner, Kansas, near the New Trails site along I-35, are detailed in the Sports Facilities Advisory report ("E Impact.pdf"). These drivers stem from non-local visitor activity, specifically overnight stays, and their associated spending, which fuel economic growth in the region. Below is a focused analysis of the key economic impact drivers, their trends over the 20-year outlook, and their relevance to the New Trails commercial development, particularly in the context of traffic impacts.
Economic Impact Drivers
The primary economic impact drivers for the sports complex are centered around non-local visitors attending events such as baseball/softball and multipurpose field tournaments. These drivers are quantified through two key metrics:
- Non-Local Days in Market (Overnight):
- This measures the total number of days non-local visitors (e.g., athletes, families, coaches) spend in Gardner for events at the complex, requiring overnight stays.
- Years 1–5: Non-local days increase from 137,783 (Year 1) to 210,674 (Year 5), reflecting growth in event frequency (21 to 31 events annually) and attendance.
- Years 11–20: The metric rises steadily from 223,635 (Year 11) to 234,758 (Year 20), indicating sustained tourism growth as the complex matures.
- Trend: A consistent upward trajectory, with a 52.5% increase over the first five years and a 4.9% increase from Year 11 to Year 20, driven by the complex’s growing reputation and event capacity.
- Room Nights:
- Room nights represent the total number of hotel nights booked by non-local visitors, directly tied to overnight stays.
- Years 1–5: Room nights grow from 32,598 (Year 1) to 49,848 (Year 5), mirroring the rise in non-local days.
- Years 11–20: Room nights increase from 52,915 (Year 11) to 57,872 (Year 20), a 9.4% rise over the decade.
- Trend: Room nights grow by 52.9% in the first five years, then stabilize with slower growth in later years, reflecting a maturing market.
- Per-Person Spending:
- Non-local visitors’ spending across categories (lodging, dining, transportation, entertainment, retail, miscellaneous) amplifies the economic impact.
- Years 1–5: Spending per person rises from $137.52 to $145.96, with dining/groceries ($48.00–$50.95) and lodging ($42.00–$44.58) as the largest categories.
- Years 11–20: The report does not specify per-person spending for later years, but earlier trends suggest continued modest increases (e.g., 1.5% annual inflation).
- Trend: A 6.1% increase over five years, driven by inflation and demand for local services, directly benefiting nearby commercial developments like New Trails.
Economic Impact Generated
These drivers result in significant direct economic impact through visitor spending:
- Years 1–5: Total direct spending grows from $18.95 million (Year 1) to $30.75 million (Year 5), a 62.3% increase. This reflects the rise in non-local days, room nights, and per-person spending.
- Years 11–20: Impact increases from $35.49 million (Year 11) to $44.53 million (Year 20), a 25.4% rise, totaling over $550 million across 20 years.
- Indirect Spending: The report lists $0 for indirect spending, suggesting a conservative estimate focused solely on direct visitor expenditures.
Relevance to New Trails Commercial Development
The sports complex’s economic impact drivers directly benefit the New Trails commercial development (J2J New Trails, LLC), located at I-35 and Highway 56, by increasing demand for its proposed retail, dining, and hotel facilities:
- Visitor Spending Synergy: The complex’s visitors (137,783–234,758 non-local days annually) will spend on dining ($50.95/person by Year 5), retail ($23.94), and lodging ($44.58), aligning with New Trails’ planned C-Store, coffee shops (e.g., Dutch Bros), restaurants (e.g., Chipotle, Wendy’s), retail strips, and a Marriott hotel. For example, 210,674 non-local days in Year 5 could generate $10.7 million in dining spending alone, boosting New Trails’ revenue potential.
- Hotel Demand: Room nights (32,598–57,872) support New Trails’ Marriott hotel, ensuring high occupancy and hotel rebates ($86,254–$131,898 annually for the complex).
- Traffic Impact: The complex’s 21–31 annual events will add 5,000–10,000 daily trips to I-35 (40,000 vehicles/day) and Highway 56 (10,000 vehicles/day), already congested at Gardner Road (2017 Kansas City Star). A traffic impact study for New Trails, using methodologies like ITE trip generation, would estimate additional peak-hour trips (e.g., 500–1,000 from sports visitors), necessitating mitigation like signalization at Clare Road and coordination with KDOT’s $25 million I-35/U.S. 56 interchange modernization (FY2029).
Summary
The sports complex’s economic impact is driven by non-local overnight stays (137,783–234,758 days), room nights (32,598–57,872), and per-person spending ($137.52–$145.96), generating $18.95 million to $44.53 million annually over 20 years. This influx directly supports New Trails’ commercial offerings by increasing demand for dining, retail, and lodging, but it also heightens traffic pressure on I-35, requiring careful planning to manage impacts on safety and congestion.
