Generally, fewer people vote in off-year primaries compared to primaries held in presidential election years or midterm elections.
Here's why and what the data shows:
- Low Awareness: Off-year elections (years without major nationwide contests like the presidential or midterm elections) often see lower voter turnout because voters may be less aware of the candidates and issues on the ballot, according to Noble Predictive Insights. This is partly due to lower campaign spending in these races compared to higher-profile national elections.
- Data on Turnout:
- In 2022 midterm primaries, 21.3% of eligible voters participated.
- In 2024 primaries held through April 24, approximately 23% of registered voters cast a ballot.
- The average turnout for six odd-year, off-cycle contests in 2022 and 2024 was 36%.
- One study of 340 mayoral elections found an average turnout of slightly over one-quarter of eligible voters.
- Factors Influencing Turnout:
- Voter Fatigue: If voters perceive they're voting too frequently, they may skip less prominent elections.
- Ballot Awareness: Understanding the direct impact of local races on daily life can encourage voters.
- Campaign Spending: More robust campaigns generally lead to higher voter awareness and participation.
- Electoral Competitiveness: Perceived competitiveness can motivate voters.
- State-Specific Factors: Open primaries can increase turnout, and the presence of high-interest statewide contests can boost participation.
Essentially, off-year primaries, despite potentially having a significant impact on local governance, often struggle to attract the same level of voter engagement as elections for national office.
